2024 NFC West Overview and Betting Preview

2024 NFC West Overview and Betting Preview

Regular Season Win Totals and NFC West/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
San Francisco 49ers: 11.5 Over +125 Under -145 ~ NFC West Winner -195 ~ Super Bowl Winner +600
Los Angeles Rams: 8.5 Over -160 Under +135 ~ NFC West Winner +350 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,000
Seattle Seahawks: 7.5 Over -150 Under +130 ~ NFC West Winner +650 ~ Super Bowl Winner +6,500
Arizona Cardinals: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125 ~ NFC West Winner +1,300 ~ Super Bowl Winner +10,000

Coaching Changes
Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll Out ~ Mike Macdonald In

Team Previews

San Francisco 49ers: 14-6 ~ 5-1 NFC West ~ 9-11-0 ATS ~ 10-8-2 O/U
Won the NFC West, Lost Super Bowl LVIII
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 13

Notable Additions: QB Josh Dobbs, OT Brandon Parker, DE Leonard Floyd, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, DT Maliek Collins, DT Jordan Elliott, LB De’Vondre Campbell, CB Isaac Yiadom

Notable Losses: QB Sam Darnold, TE Charlie Woerner, OT Matt Pryor, DE Chase Young, DE Randy Gregory, DE Clelin Ferrell, DT Arik Armstead, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LB Oren Burks, CB Isaiah Oliver, S Tashaun Gipson, S Logan Ryan

Notable Draft Selections: WR Ricky Pearsall, CB Renardo Green, OT/G Dominick Puni, S Malik Mustapha, RB Isaac Guerendo, WR Jacob Cowing

The 49ers fell just short once again as they made it to the Super Bowl for the second time in five years but lost to Kansas City yet again and it was their third Super Bowl loss in the last 12 seasons. San Francisco has also lost two NFC Championships over this five-season stretch so there are questions about head coach Kyle Shanahan, who is considered one of the best system coaches and play callers, that he does not have what it takes under pressure. The 49ers are favored to win the NFC once again but the conference is getting stronger and this will be an interesting year to see how they handle an offseason that was not a smooth one and how they can recover from yet another close call. The numbers do not lie as San Francsico finished No. 1 in Total EPA, Passing EPA and Rushing EPA on offense and everyone is back. Quarterback Brock Purdy quieted the naysayers that his 2022 season was blind luck but he followed it up with an MVP-like 2023 season as all of his numbers went up and he posted a 113.0 QB Rating. It helps having the best running back in the game in Christian McCaffrey in the backfield as well as three No. 1 pass catchers in George Kittle, Deebo Samual and Brandon Aiyuk. The only concern heading into the season was the holdout of tackle Trent Williams but as of Tuesday morning before Week One, a new deal has been worked out. Defensively, the 49ers finished No. 7 in EPA and despite losing Arik Armstead and Chase Young, they got the replacements.

It was a turbulent offseason with contract disputes, trade requests and holdouts but management did its job and kept everyone happy and anyone that thinks the "loud" offseason is going to hurt them is wrong. This has not deterred the 49ers futures as they are bigger favorites across the board than from this time last season while their win total has increased by a half win. The NFC West plays the AFC East and NFC North and they play Kansas City, Dallas and Tampa Bay in their crossover games and while the first two are at home, they come in back-to-back weeks to close October. This is the best roster in the NFC and will be in for another Super Bowl run but there is no value and they were injury free last year so we will be on the sidelines.

Los Angeles Rams: 10-8 ~ 5-1 NFC West ~ 11-6-1 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the NFC West, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 15

Notable Additions: TE Colby Parkinson, G Jonah Jackson, CB Tre'Davious, CB Darious Williams, S Kamren Curl

Notable Losses: QB Carson Wentz, C Brian Allen, DT Aaron Donald, DT Larrell Murchison, LB Troy Reeder, CB Ahkello Witherspoon, CB Duke Shelley, S John Johnson

Notable Draft Selections: DE Jared Verse, DT Braden Fiske, RB Blake Corum, S Kamren Kinchens, DE Brennan Jackson

After winning the Super Bowl in 2021, the Rams were crushed by injuries in 2022 on their way to a 5-12 season that included a six-game losing streak and last season did not start good. Los Angeles opened 3-6 but had one of the best second halves in the league as it went 7-1 down the stretch and lost a tough one-point game at Detroit in the Wild Card Round. The Rams proved that good teams do not let the bad things linger and they fought through the adversity which will make them relevant again in 2024. Los Angeles may not have been able to make the late run like they did without two emerging stars on offense in wide receiver Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams who combined for 2,925 yards from scrimmage. Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford is still playing at a high level and a healthy Cooper Kupp can give the Rams an offense that can rival the 49ers. What was a weakness two years ago, the offensive line improved and went from No. 28 to No. 16 according to PFF. The Rams finished No. 9 in Offensive EPA but were the best in the second half of the season. The defense was inconsistent but kept pace with their numbers from the two previous seasons despite finishing No. 22 in EPA. The loss of Aaron Donald to retirement will be impossible to make up but Los Angeles hit the market to shore up the secondary by signing two legit corners in Tre'Davious White and Darious Williams while using the draft to at least try and keep the defensive line strong.

Coming off that injury-plagued disaster in 2022, the Rams were longshots across the board and while they did not cash any standings futures, they were successful in crushing the win total by 3.5 games and cashing their +300 ticket on making the playoffs. The odds have come down considerably in 2024 but not to the point of being unbettable. Los Angeles should have the offense to keep pace with the 49ers who could be in position for some regression and less luck factors including injuries which has what put the Rams behind the eight-ball. The schedule is pretty tame as the three crossover games are Las Vegas, Philadelphia and New Orleans. The over wins are tough because they are juiced but a division bet could be worth a shot at +350.

Seattle Seahawks: 9-8 ~ 2-4 NFC West ~ 8-7-2 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the NFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 25

Notable Additions: QB Sam Howell, OT George Fant, G Tremayne Anchrum, C Nick Harris, DT Johnathan Hankins, LB Jerome Baker, LB Tyrel Dodson, S Rayshawn Jenkins, S K’Von Wallace

Notable Losses: QB Drew Lock, TE Colby Parkinson, TE Will Dissly, G Damien Lewis, G Phil Haynes, C Evan Brown, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Jordyn Brooks, LB Devin Bush, S Quandre Diggs, S Jamal Adams

Notable Draft Selections: DT Byron Murphy II, G Christian Haynes, LB Tyrice Knight, TE A.J. Barner, CB Nehemiah Pritchett

Seattle opened the 2023 season 6-3 but then hit a brutal stretch of games facing the Rams, Cowboys and 49ers twice and it went 0-4. The Seahawks closed the season 3-1 but fell just short of a postseason berth as they lost the fourth tiebreaker to Green Bay, the rarely used Strength of Victory which was an unfortunate way to not make the playoffs. Seattle has put together winning seasons in 11 of the previous 12 years with the 7-10 team from 2021 being the only exception but thought it was necessary to make a change and move on from head coach Pete Carroll and his 14 seasons who went 2-0 in the NFC Championship while splitting his two Super Bowl appearances. They hired Mike Macdonald who was the defensive coordinator at Michigan in 2021 and improved that defense by over 17 ppg and over 100 ypg and has spent the last two seasons as the defensive coordinator in Baltimore with the Ravens finishing No. 2 in EPA last season. The offense will essentially be the same led by quarterback Geno Smith who has one of the best wide receiver groups in the league and a great young running back in Kenneth Walker. The interior of the offensive line is the big concern. The Macdonald hire is a great one to resurrect a defense that has dropped in EPA each of the last four years, going from No. 17 in 2020 to No. 29 in 2023. They have done an overhaul at linebacker, replacing all three starters, while upgrading the defensive line by drafting tackle Byron Murphy II from Texas.

Can an aging coach that was well past his prime affect betting odds to an extent where those odds have increased considerably across the board? That seems to be the only legitimate reason that Seattle has gone from +3,500 to +6,500 to win the Super Bowl, from +1,400 to +3,000 to win the NFC and from +190 to +650 to win the NFC West. If anything, there is an upgrade on defense with an offense that is pretty much the same. We are not very high on the Seahawks but there is more value on them than any other team as they are still a legitimate playoff contender. They are not going to the Super Bowl or likely even the NFC Championship but with their easy schedule, they can make a Wild Card run and a +180 bet to make the playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals: 4-13 ~ 0-6 NFC West ~ 9-8-0 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the NFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 30

Notable Additions: QB Desmond Ridder, RB DeeJay Dallas, WR Chris Moore, OT Jonah Williams, C Evan Brown, DT Bilal Nichols, DT Justin Jones, DT Khyiris Tonga, LB Mack Wilson, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting

Notable Losses: WR Marquise Brown, WR Rondale Moore, OT D.J. Humphries, DT Leki Fotu, CB Antonio Hamilton

Notable Draft Selections: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., DT Darius Robinson, CB Max Melton, RB Trey Benson, OT/G Isaiah Adams, TE Tip Reiman, CB Elijah Jones, S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, DE Xavier Thomas, OT/G Christian Jones

Arizona has bottomed out the last two seasons but it lost quarterback Kyler Murray during the 2022 season and he did not come back until mid-November and was legitimately good over the latter half of his eight games played. Back-to-back 4-13 seasons are hard to accomplish in this league but not having the stability at quarterback can do that and this will be a team on the rise. Maybe not to a great extent this season but the Cardinals have a favorable schedule that is third easiest in the league, a healthy quarterback and what looks like a generational wide receiver coming out of the draft. Murray struggled in his first couple games but after the Cardinals went 1-8 in his absence, he led them to a 3-5 record with three of those losses coming against playoff teams. There is now stability and he will have Marvin Harrison, Jr. at his disposal which will give better looks to Michael Wilson and tight end Trey McBride who had a breakout second half when Murray returned. James Connor and draft pick Trey Benson form a solid running game while the offensive line made some upgrades so the offense that has been near the bottom of the NFL in EPA the last two seasons should show significant improvements. The defense did not do much to help out the offense as Arizona was No. 31 in EPA but there have been upgrades to help. Drafting Darius Robinson will improve a bad defensive line and if they can show progress from the No. 31 Pressure Rate, the already solid secondary could be really good.

No one will be giving the Cardinals a chance in the NFC West but the odds have decreased considerably which had to happen based on the personnel differences coming into this season compared to last year. There is still value in some spots however in what is a pretty loaded division which is keeping their numbers among the longshot level. Winning the division is not a crazy expectation as this is a common occurrence as we have seen 18 teams go from worst to first in the last 20 seasons. It is definitely worth a sprinkle with the two top teams in the NFC West possessing some injury-plagued players. The over is juiced at -150 and after a rough start with a frontloaded schedule, the Cardinals can ease in and realistically grab 7 or 8 wins.

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