Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview and Picks

We snagged a top ten with Nicolai Højgaard who finished T6 after making the cut on the number and going 66, 65 over the weekend but it was a very disappointing card from a less than stellar field. Shane Lowry had the Cognizant Classic in his grasp but double bogeys on 16 and 17 saw a three-shot lead turn into a two-shot deficit and Nico Echavarria took advantage with a huge birdie on 17 to win by two to capture his third PGA Tour win. The Florida swing continues with the third signature event of the season as this week it is the highly regarded Arnold Palmer Invitational from Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida.

Formerly known as the Bay Hill Invitational, the name changed in 2007 recognizing Palmer who took over the property. This will be the third signature event over the last four weeks and while the field goes up in strength immensely from last week, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is a limited field to 72 players with the cut at top 50 and ties similar to the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. Bay Hill is a par 72 that stretches to 7,466 yards and while it is especially long, it plays even longer due to doglegs and extremely thick rough that eats up balls. It is annually one of the tougher tracks in difficulty and has been ranked No. 8, No. 10 and No. 10 the last three years. 

Over the last years of this event, only two players have finished lower than -17 and those were Rory McIlroy at -18 in 2018 and Scottie Scheffler at -15 in 2024. Because of the length, distance is important but not close to the biggest factor at the Arnold Palmer Invitational as over the last 15 years, the winner has finished inside the top ten in Driving Distance only four times with eight outside the top 30. Driving Accuracy is even less important which is surprising because of the difficulty of the rough as of those last 15 winners, 12 were ranked outside the top 25 in accuracy. We have to key on SG: Tee-To-Green, Proximity: 200+ Yards and SG: Approach with SG: Around-The-Green being important as well. 

While course history meant little last week at PGA National, it is very important this week as eight of the last nine winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational have a T15 or better finish in a previous Bay Hill start with Kurt Kitayama being the only exception in 2023 as he was actually a debutant. Of the 72 players in the field this week, 42 have at least one T15 since 2016 so we will be relying on course history heavily as well. We also take into consideration similar courses in setup and difficulty and correlating events this week are the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow Club, the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village and the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course).  

We are back to a limited signature event field with the best of the best as 38 of the top 40 are in play this week with only Aaron Rai and Marco Penge sitting out. Because this is just the third year of it being a signature event and not a typical full field, only five previous winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational are playing including defending champion Russell Henley along with Kitayama, Scheffler, McIlroy and Jason Day. Justin Thomas is making his season debut and first start since finishing 69th at the Procore Championship last September prior to his back surgery as is Sungjae Im who is back from a wrist injury. Nine first timers will be teeing it up this week.  

The forecast is similar to last week with temperatures in the mid 80s throughout the week with no rain expected while winds will not be a big factor at 10-15 mph. 

From a statistical standpoint, it is iron play being most important again this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with our top four key categories being:

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: Win 2,600 ~ Top Five 450 ~ Top Ten 205
Payout: Win 1,300.00 ~ Top Five 112.50 ~ Top Ten 51.25

Fitzpatrick has been playing at a high level and we have been on him a couple times with a top ten to show for it with the putter letting him down in three of his four starts. He is ranked No. 5 in SG: Tee-To-Green, No. 18 in Proximity: 200+ Yards and No. 4 in SG: Approach so his ball striking is spot on. His success at Bay Hill is the best in the field without a win as he has seven T22 or better in his last nine starts including four top tens. He has never lost strokes putting at Bay Hill so if that sticks, look out.

Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 490 ~ Top Ten 220
Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 122.50 ~ Top Ten 55.00

Matsuyama nearly picked up a win at the WM Phoenix Open but lost in a playoff and he has been excellent around that as well. He has three other T13 or better and while his latest start at The Genesis Invitational resulted in a T28, it was his normally elite approach game that let him down. He is ranked 16th or better in all four key categories including No. 2 in Proximity: 200+ Yards. He has not been in contention here since 2016 but does have four T25’s the last five years including a T12 in 2024. 

Ludvig Åberg
Odds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 680 ~ Top Ten 305
Payout: Win 2,000.00 ~ Top Five 170.00 ~ Top Ten 76.25

Åberg is the one outlier of the card that does not have a T15 at Bay Hill but he does have three 25s in three starts so he is comfortable and his T22 last year came after a win. His 2026 season got off to a similar start like 2025 as he started slow with an illness as he withdrew from the American Express and then missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has a T20 in his last start at the Genesis Invitational and has gained strokes in all categories his last two starts after an abysmal showing at Torrey. 

Shane Lowry
Odds: Win 4,900 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 325
Payout: Win 2,450.00 ~ Top Five 187.50 ~ Top Ten 81.25

We had Lowry circled for this event and had he won last week, we probably would be off him but his implosion is giving us value and his motivation will be peaking. He was great last week with the exception of those last two holes especially and it was his second T8 in three starts. He is ranked No. 21 in SG: Tee-To-Green, No. 10 in Proximity: 200+ Yards and No. 12 in SG: Approach and while way down the list in SG: Around-The-Green, he was plus the last two years at Bay Hill where he finished solo 3 and solo 7. 

Sahith Theegala
Odds: Win 9,800 ~ Top Five 1,325 ~ Top Ten 550
Payout: Win 4,900.00 ~ Top Five 331.25 ~ Top Ten 137.50

Theegala has gotten his game back after an awful 2025 season and his odds are still reflecting that. He opened T31 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and then came back with a T8, T7 and T18 and after struggling around and on the greens at Pebble Beach, he bounced back with a T22 at The Genesis Invitational. His struggles at Pebble were surprising as he is No. 36 in SG: Around-The-Green. He missed the cut here last year but that was last year and he was T6 in 2024 and T14 in 2023 so he has the course fit. 

Results through the Cognizant Classic (4 Tournaments):

Win: -8,000.00
Top Five: +325.00
Top Ten: +875.00

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