2024 AFC North Overview and Betting Preview

2024 AFC North Overview and Betting Preview

Regular Season Win Totals and AFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 Over -120 Under +100~ AFC North Winner +145 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,000
Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 Over -125 Under +100 ~ AFC North Winner +140 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,300
Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ AFC North Winner +600 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,000
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Over +120 Under -145 ~ AFC North Winner +800 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000

Coaching Changes
None

Team Previews

Baltimore Ravens: 14-5 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 8-10-1 O/U
Won AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 2

Notable Additions: RB Derrick Henry, OT Josh Jones, LB Chris Board

Notable Losses: QB Tyler Huntley, RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, OT Morgan Moses, G Kevin Zeitler, G John Simpson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB Tyus Bowser, LB Patrick Queen, CB Ronald Darby, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Geno Stone

Notable Draft Selections: CB Nate Wiggins, OT Roger Rosengarten, DE Adisa Isaac, WR Deonvtez Walker, CB T.J. Tampa

Baltimore gained the No. 1 Seed in the AFC last season as it put together an impressive 13-3 record before dropping their meaningless Week 17 game where they rested most starters. The three meaningful losses were by a combined 12 points and they rolled into the Divisional Round of the playoffs with a blowout win over Houston before losing to Kansas City in the AFC Championship as they committed three turnovers, two in the redzone. Despite going through a fairly big overhaul, the Ravens have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine. While they have the second toughest schedule in the NFL based on opponent win percentage from last season, the Ravens have the No. 1 Net Rest advantage as they get 16 more days of rest than their opponents (in contrast, the 49ers have the worst at -21 days). The slate is tough early on with four of their first five games against Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo and Cincinnati, all of which are in the top ten in Super Bowl odds.

The 10.5 wins look to be spot on as we see about 12 games that are swing games so going just 6-6 in those will give them the over but in all actuality, the Ravens should win more than those as we are counting all division games in that mix. The net rest edge is a huge advantage as well as they caught a break with the condensed grouping of some schedules is affecting a lot of teams. The Ravens are not the favorites to win the AFC North which is based on their schedule and personnel changes but they will be right there although there is no value on this number after coming in at +220 last season. Barring significant injury, getting to and winning the Super Bowl is in play but as is the case again, the AFC is loaded and wide open.

Cincinnati Bengals: 9-8 ~ 1-5 AFC North ~ 7-8-2 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 17

Notable Additions: RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone, S Vonn Bell

Notable Losses: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd, TE Irv Smith, OT Jonah Williams, DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Nick Scott

Notable Draft Selections: OT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, NT McKinnley Jackson, TE Erick All, CB Josh Newton

The Bengals had a trying 2023 season but somehow were still in the playoff mix at 8-6 but back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh and Kansas City did them in yet a 9-8 finish was still impressive. It is safe to say the success of Cincinnati revolves around the health of quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals went 5-5 in games he played but four of those losses were when he was not healthy, three with his calf injury and the final one when he hurt his wrist against Baltimore. Keeping him upright is of the utmost importance and after allowing 50 sacks last season, the offensive line has been upgraded with Trent Brown and draft pick Amarius Mims. Team veterans Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are gone but there should be no drop-off in either unit. While a lot of the blame for missing the playoffs was because Burrow was rarely 100 percent, the defense has to take most, if not all of the blame. The Bengals were No. 28 in Defensive EPA including No. 29 against the run and No. 25 against the pass. There have been changes along the line and in the secondary but will it be enough? The first half of the schedule is a must for a quick start as they face five teams that went a combined 24-61 and two of their toughest games against Baltimore and Philadelphia are both at home. Five of the last eight games are on the road.

The Bengals do have slightly higher odds across the board to win the AFC North, AFC and Super Bowl from last season yet their regular season win total is higher than it was in 2023. That might not make much sense but the makeup of this team justifies it. The schedule is backloaded so if Cincinnati gets off to a hot start which it should, it can use that momentum to steal some games in the second half so going over the win total is conceivable as is winning the AFC North. The makeup of this team refers to the fact the Bengals are awful on defense without making enough improvement and they will not be able to make a playoff run without a potent defense so making any move on winning the conference or the Super Bowl seems a stretch.

Cleveland Browns: 11-7 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 11-6-1 O/U
Finished 2nd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 1

Notable Additions: QB Jameis Winston, QB Tyler Huntley, RB Nyheim Hines, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Hakeem Adeniji, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Devin Bush, CB Tony Brown

Notable Losses: QB Joe Flacco, RB Kareem Hunt, TE Harrison Bryant, C Nick Harris, DT Shelby Harris, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Anthony Walker, LB Sione Takitaki, S Duron Harmon

Notable Draft Selections: DT Michael Hall, G Zak Zinter

Cleveland was in the same boat last season as Cincinnati as it had quarterback issues but the difference between the Browns and Bengals was that the Browns had a defense, actually, one of the best in the league. It did not do them any good in the playoffs as they were bounced by Houston in a blowout but going 11-7 possibly gives them a lot to look forward to. No one saw Joe Flacco coming from his couch to take the Browns into the postseason but now it is time for Deshawn Watson to show his worth. Suspensions and injuries have limited him to 11 games in Cleveland but only four of those resulted in a passer rating of 90 or higher so he needs to revert to his time in Houston. The offense was also able to overcome the loss of running back Nick Chubb to have an average running game but he will not be ready to start the season so the signings of Nyheim Hines and D'Onta Foreman is a good temporary fix. The defense should be just as good with the only significant loss being linebacker Anthony Walker. The offense has a chance to come together early as after the opener at home against Dallas, the Browns face the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders and Commanders in consecutive weeks although three of those are on the road and then 10 of the last 12 games are against legitimate playoff teams.

Looking at this schedule makes it hard to find nine wins as there are only a few sure wins with numerous swing games, a very tough division and crossover games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers and Chiefs. For a team that finished with 11 wins and now having an 8.5 number put on them and not having much change going into this season shows the oddsmakers know this team overachieved so taking the under at plus money is the better option based on this slate and with the injury prone Watson under center with a turnover machine as his backup. That being said, there is no value on the division number and this is not a Super Bowl ready team and while missing the playoffs is juiced at -175, it like the safe bet.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-8 ~ 5-1 AFC North ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 7-11-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 3

Notable Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, QB Kyle Allen, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Van Jefferson, WR Quez Watkins, DT Dean Lowry, LB Patrick Queen, CB Donte Jackson, S DeShon Elliott, P Cameron Johnston

Notable Losses: QB Kenny Pickett, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Diontae Johnson, C Mason Cole, DT Armon Watts, OLB Markus Golden, LB Kwon Alexander, LB Blake Martinez, CB Levi Wallace, CB Chandon Sullivan, CB James Pierre, S Patrick Peterson, S Keanu Neal

Notable Draft Selections: OT Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier, WR Roman Wilson, LB Payton Wilson, C Mason McCormick

The Steelers came away with another winning season to sneak into the playoffs but they were no match for Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. You have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a losing record and head coach Mike Tomlin owns a run of 17 straight seasons at .500 or above. There have been three Super Bowls including two wins, with Tomlin going 1-1, but they have not made it since 2010 and this is likely not the year. Pittsburgh is a totally different team on offense from the start of last season, from offensive coordinator right down to the quarterback room. The Kenny Pickett experiment did not work out and he is out along with Mason Rudolph and they brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and neither have shown much the last couple years to prove to turn around an offense that was No. 23 in Passing EPA last season. They will again rely on the running game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The defense once again was solid and it all revolves around T.J. Watt as Pittsburgh was 8-2 when he played and 1-6 when he did not but it needs to figure out to succeed around him as while his 19 sacks were outstanding, only one other player had more than four sacks. A big addition is linebacker Patrick Queen coming over from the division rival Ravens and the secondary improved with Donte Jackson and DeShon Elliott coming over from Carolina and Miami respectively to compliment Joey Porter, Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick. But it all comes down to Watt staying healthy.

Since 2004, Pittsburgh has been an over machine. It is 14-6 to the over and making that even more impressive is their lowest preseason win total was 7.5 twice and four of the six under wins were when they had a double-digit win total. The Steelers have cashed the over in 11 of 13 seasons when it is single digits. Does the train keep rolling or is it time to deboard? Pittsburgh has the most bizarre schedule as its first nine games are against non-vision foes and seven of those are winnable but they cannot slip up as Kansas City and Philadelphia are wrapped around the six division games in the final eight. There are just so many unknowns to make a speculation of the long term performance of this team so looking at in-season odds is the way go.

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