The Cognizant Classic Preview and Picks

We were out of the money for the first time with The Genesis Invitational as it was Jacob Bridgeman winning his first PGA Tour event. He bogeyed two of his last three holes last week at Pebble Beach to fall short and it looked like another possible meltdown at Riviera. After birdieing two of his first three holes, eventually building a seven-shot lead, he went +3 over his last 15 holes and held off Kurt Kitayama and Rory McIlroy to win by only one shot. The California swing is complete and the tour heads to Florida for the next four events starting with the Cognizant Classic from PGA National Resort (Champions Course) in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

Formerly known as The Honda Classic, Cognizant took over sponsorship in 2024 and unfortunately for the event, it precedes the signature event Arnold Palmer Invitational and this year has to follow a signature event as it was usually played after the Mexico Open but that was moved to late October. The Champions Course at PGA National is a par 71 and will be played at 7,223 yards, an increase of around 100 yards from last year. The yardage increase means little as this was once a very difficult track but a renovation was done after the 2022 edition and the biggest course change was changing the fairways from Bermuda to a more forgiving Ryegrass overseed.

From 2004-2022, the lowest winning score was -14 in 2005 and since the changes, the winning scores have been -14 by Chris Kirk in 2023, -17 by Austin Eckroat in 2024 and -19 by Joe Highsmith in 2025. There are still dangers at the Cognizant Classic, most notably holes 15, 16 and 17 conveniently dubbed The Bear Trap after Jack Nicklaus, and while it has eased up, it is still one of the most difficult three-hole stretches on tour. SG: Approach is by far the most important key stat this week as this is one of the toughest approach courses and each of the last five winners have finished top 10 in Approach. Additionally, SG: Putting is right there with three of the last five winners inside the top 10.

Course history has meant little here, even before the renovations, as of the last six winners, three had missed the cut the previous year and three others finished no higher than T33 the year before. A lot of this is due to the wide open field that changes drastically year to year without the big names in play so it has been a wide open event. Notable past winners from 2012-2018 Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Adam Scott (WD this year), Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas rarely are to be found anymore. Correlating events this week are the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links, the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale and the RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort.

We are back to a full field in the Cognizant Classic at 123 players with the top 65 and ties making the cut. Because of Monday withdrawals, there are no OWGR top 25 players in the field as Ryan Gerard is the highest ranked player at No. 26. Only eight players ranked in the top 50 are in town this week (Gerard, Shane Lowry, Aaron Rai, Michael Brennan, Kristoffer Reitan, Rasmus Højgaard, Sami Valimaki and Michael Thorbjornsen) with other notables Brooks Koepka, Keith Mitchell, Daniel Berger, Max Homa, Billy Horschel and Gary Woodland. The defending champion is Joe Highsmith who won by two shots over Jacob Bridgeman and J.J. Spaun.

The forecast calls for low 80s throughout the week with a slight chance of rain each day but nothing noteworthy while winds will be a factor at 10-15 mph favoring lower ball hitters. 

From a statistical standpoint, iron play at the Cognizant Classic tops the list with our top three key categories being:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Bogey Avoidance

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Nicolai Højgaard
Odds: Win 2,150 ~ Top Five 420 ~ Top Ten 215
Payout: Win 1,075.00 ~ Top Five 105.00 ~ Top Ten 53.75

Højgaard is one of the favorites just ahead of twin brother Rasmus and will be out to gain his first PGA Tour win. He has gotten off to a solid start with a T22 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open. He comes in No. 1 in the field in SG: Off The Tee, No. 9 in SG: Approach and No. 1 in Bogey Avoidance and while his Bermuda putting has been average, he is No. 19 in the field in that category. He was T14 here last year as he had four sub-70 rounds as his approach game was spot on and was +0.88 in putting.

John Keefer
Odds: Win 4,800 ~ Top Five 810 ~ Top Ten 395
Payout: Win 2,400.00 ~ Top Five 202.50 ~ Top Ten 98.75

Keefer is not a household name yet but good things await after finishing No. 1 on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. He finished T7 at the correlating RSM Classic to close 2025 and he has made all four cuts to start 2026. His putting has been horrible but he goes from Poa Annua to Bermuda which is going to help his game. His iron game has kept him around for all four weekends as he is No. 5 in the field in SG: Approach as well as No. 5 in SG: Off The Tee and overall on tour, he is No. 9 in GIR.

Sami Valimaki
Odds: Win 6,100 ~ Top Five 970 ~ Top Ten 455
Payout: Win 3,050.00 ~ Top Five 242.50 ~ Top Ten 113.75

After missing the cut in his first two starts at The American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open, Valimaki has been trending the right way with a T41, T34 and T37 in his last three starts. Since it has been nothing off the charts, his numbers are not in the upper echelon but he has been plus in SG: Approach in those last three starts including +1.21 at The Genesis Invitational. His last start in 2025 was at the correlating RSM Classic which he won in a similar field and was plus in SG across the board. 

David Ford
Odds: Win 11,000 ~ Top Five 1,600 ~ Top Ten 720
Payout: Win 5,500.00 ~ Top Five 400.00 ~ Top Ten 180.00

Ford is another name people are not familiar with but he fits the mold here. He has made three starts with his best finish a T13 at The American Express and while it is a small sample, he is No. 12 in SG: Approach, No. 1 in Total Driving and No. 7 in Ball Striking on tour and in the field, he is No. 6 in SG: Approach and No. 8 in Bogey Avoidance and even though he is a rookie, he actually has a win at PGA National and while it was six years ago and course history is not important, it brings in confidence. 

Results through The Genesis Invitational (3 Tournaments):

Win: -6,000.00
Top Five: +1,325.00
Top Ten: +837.50

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