THE PLAYERS Championship Preview and Picks

We had two players in contention over the weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and both hit our money list with Ludvig Åberg finishing T3 and Sahith Theegala coming in T6. It was almost a wire-to-wire winner for Daniel Berger but it was Akshay Bhatia who overcame a late five-shot deficit and forced a playoff which he won on the first hole of sudden death. It was his third PGA Tour victory, also winning in 2023 at the Barracuda Championship and in 2024 at the Valero Texas Open, both in a playoff as well. The PGA Tour remains in the Sunshine State this week for THE PLAYERS Championship taking place from The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. 

The event has been played since 1974 and has been held at TPC Sawgrass since 1982 with the only year not played was the COVID year of 2020 after being cancelled after one round. It was moved from May to March in 2019 and The Stadium Course is a par 72 at 7,352-yards, an increase of 163 yards from 2021. While not considered a target course, it is a positional course as precision is a priority with water in play on 12 holes, including all three finishing holes, and 92 bunkers are spread throughout with both consistent ball-strikers or short game specialists having the advantages. Those final three holes have won or lost many tournaments.

Rory McIlroy won THE PLAYERS Championship last year as he took it in a three-hole Monday playoff over J.J. Spaun which followed consecutive wins from Scottie Scheffler in 2023 and 2024, the first player ever to win in back-to-back years. McIlroy joined seven other players as two-time winners and along with Scheffler, they will be looking to join Jack Nicklaus as the only three-time champion. The field is stacked as usual with 48 of the top 50 players in the world competing and since the move to March, all six winners have been ranked inside the OWGR top ten but McIlroy and Scheffler are responsible for four of those. 

While pivotal most weeks, driving distance is always a good attribute to have but this is not a course that gives bombers a huge advantage, of course with the exception of the par fives that average 554 yards. Ball strikers have the most success here which should come as no surprise based on the hazards and the small and well-defended greens being hit into. Of the last 13 winners, 11 finished inside the top ten in Strokes Gained: Approach to provide better birdie opportunities with only 2018 champion Webb Simpson giving back to the field and 2017 champion Si Woo Kim at +4.1 (16th). This also correlates to Three-Putt Avoidance which is important all the time but even more so on these fast Bermuda greens. 

From a results standpoint, THE PLAYERS Championship recent winners have a lot in common. Course fit and experience at TPC Sawgrass are important which is the case with most tournaments held at the same course and here, 16 of the last 17 winners have had at least one finish inside the top 25 in prior starts with the one exception being Scheffler when he won in 2023. Current playing form is just as important as of the last nine winners, seven have finished T21 or better in their last tour event, the two exceptions being Cam Young in 2022 when he finished T33 at The Genesis Invitational and Si Woo Kim in 2017 after missing the cut at the Zurich Classic. We are not relying heavily on this but more of looking at the last five events.

Weather in March cannot be ignored and it looks to be wet on Thursday with a 75% chance of rain but it clears out after that. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 70s with minimal winds gusting no more than 15 mph.

From a statistical standpoint, it is iron play being most important again this week at THE PLAYERS Championship with our top four key categories being:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green
Three-Putt Avoidance

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: Win +3,700 ~ Top Five +630 ~ Top Ten +295
Payout: Win +1,850.00 ~ Top Five +157.50 ~ Top Ten +73.75

Matsuyama struggled last week with his approach game which was a big surprise as that is one of his big strengths. He ended up T41 which was his worst result this season as he has four T13 or better finishes. He was the first round leader here in 2020 before the cancellation and he has a solo 5 and a T6 in-between a pair of MC’s in 2021 and 2025. He comes in No. 8 in Strokes Gained: Approach and what might be surprising, he is No. 4 in Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green and while is an average putter, he is No. 30 in Three-Putt Avoidance. 

Viktor Hovland
Odds: Win +3,700 ~ Top Five +640 ~ Top Ten +310
Payout: Win +1,850.00 ~ Top Five +160.00 ~ Top Ten +77.50

Hovland is coming off a T13 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and he is trending the right way over his last three starts. He missed the cut here last year but that was coming off two missed cuts prior to that and after missing the cut in his debut in 2021, he went T9 and T3 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. He comes in No. 2 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and No. 20 in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and his putting is a concern but four of the past six winners finished the week No. 37 or worse in Strokes Gained: Putting and he has two wins on Bermuda. 

Jake Knapp
Odds: Win +4,900 ~ Top Five +810 ~ Top Ten +380
Payout: Win +2,450.00 ~ Top Five +202.50 ~ Top Ten +95.00

Knapp withdrew last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to illness but he will be ready to go this week. He is quietly having a great season as his T11 at the Sony Open in Hawaii is his worst finish as he has followed that up with four straight top tens. He has gone T45 and T12 in two starts at The Stadium Course and this place suits his game. He is No. 2 in the field in Strokes Gained: Total and while he is not top ten in any of the key categories, although he is No. 11 in Three-Putt Avoidance, he is excellent across the board which is a big edge here.

Sepp Straka
Odds: Win +5,400 ~ Top Five +880 ~ Top Ten +410
Payout: Win +2,700.00 ~ Top Five +220.00 ~ Top Ten +102.50

Straka continues to get no respect as he is well down the betting board despite being No. 9 in the world. He opened 2026 with a MC at The American Express but finished T2 at Pebble Beach and T13 last week. He missed the cut in his debut but has been here on the weekend each of the last four years with three T16s or better including a T14 last year. He is an elite iron player as he is T6 in Strokes Gained: Approach and he is top 25 around the greens despite being negative the last two events. Two of his four PGA Tour wins have been on Bermuda greens. 

Results through the Arnold Palmer Invitational (5 Tournaments):

Win: -10,500.00
Top Five: +1,275.00
Top Ten: +2,762.50

SUBSCRIPTIONS