2024 NFC South Overview and Betting Preview

2024 NFC South Overview and Betting Preview

Regular Season Win Totals and NFC South/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons: 9.5 Over -150 Under +125 ~ NFC South Winner -130 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ NFC South Winner +320 ~ Super Bowl Winner +8,000
New Orleans Saints: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100 ~ NFC South Winner +400 ~ Super Bowl Winner +10,000
Carolina Panthers: 5.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ NFC South Winner +1,100 ~ Super Bowl Winner +25,000

Coaching Changes
Atlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith Out ~ Raheem Morris In
Carolina Panthers: Frank Reich Out ~ Dave Canales In

Team Previews

Atlanta Falcons: 7-10 ~ 3-3 NFC South ~ 5-12-0 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 31

Notable Additions: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Rondale Moore, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, TE Charlie Woerner, CB Antonio Hamilton

Notable Losses: QB Desmond Ridder, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Mack Hollins, WR Van Jefferson, TE Jonnu Smith, TE MyCole Pruitt, DE Calais Campbell, DE Bud Dupree, CB Jeff Okudah

Notable Draft Selections: QB Michael Penix Jr., DT Ruke Orhorhoro, DE Bralen Trice, DT Brandon Dorlus, LB JD Bertrand

Atlanta has increased its offensive yardage output while decreasing its defensive yardage output in each of the last three years yet the Falcons have finished with identical 7-10 records each season. They have gone six straight seasons without a winning record but many are expecting that to change in 2024 and the odds are reflecting the optimism. The record in 2023 should have been better as Atlanta finished No. 24 or worse in total offense and total defense in 2021 and 2022 but improved those rankings to No. 17 and No. 11 respectively last season but were on the wrong end of some close games. The Falcons started 4-3 but their next six losses were by a combined 16 points so there was certainly some bad luck involved yet there was plenty of bad coaching as closing losses by 20 and 29 points cost head coach Arthur Smith his job. After rumors of Bill Belichick possibly taking over, Atlanta settled on Raheem Morris who coached 11 games here in 2020 as an interim head coach and went 4-7. The big move was bringing in quarterback Kirk Cousins who is coming off an Achillies injury but he has looked fine during camp. One thing Smith did that shook heads was underutilizing running back Bijan Robinson and that is going to change under Morris. The Falcons picked up a trio of receivers to go with Drake London who is expected to have a big season along with tight end Kyle Pitts as there is a real quarterback room now. The defense was solid but lost their top two edge rushers.

Despite winning no more than seven games for six straight seasons and going 1-6 to the under, the Falcons win total this season is 9.5 and juiced at -150. The addition of Cousins, an upgrade in the head coach, playing in arguably the worst division in the league and playing the second easiest schedule are all playing into this and many seem to be going all in. Winning the division is certainly conceivable as it getting double digit wins as they close the season with eight games against non-playoff teams from last season but that is where it should end. Going from +8,000 last year to +3,000 this year to win the Super Bowl is overly aggressive and their NFC odds also have a similar decrease. Everyone is in but we are steering clear.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10-9 ~ 4-2 NFC South ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 7-12-0 O/U
Won the NFC South, Lost in the NFC Divisional Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 28

Notable Additions: G Sua Opeta, C Ben Bredeson, DE/OLB Randy Gregory, CB Bryce Hall, CB Tavierre Thomas, S Jordan Whitehead

Notable Losses: OT Greg Gaines, G Matt Feiler, DE William Gholston, DE/OLB Shaq Barrett, LB Devin White, CB Carlton Davis, S Ryan Neal

Notable Draft Selections: C Graham Barton, DE/OLB Chris Braswell, S/CB Tykee Smith, WR Jalen McMillan, RB Bucky Irving

While Atlanta was a very unlucky team last season, Tampa Bay was just the opposite. The Buccaneers snuck into the playoffs thanks to a 5-1 end to the regular season which did include a solid win over Green Bay but the other four wins were against non-playoff teams including a pair over Carolina. The closing soft schedule was ideal as through their first 11 games, the Buccaneers were outgained in eight of those which resulted in seven losses. It was the third straight division title for Tampa Bay and fourth straight playoff appearance but let’s not forget that Tom Brady was leading the offense for the first three of those postseason appearances. Baker Mayfield got them there last season as he was solid, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while posting a 94.6 QB rating. Still, the offense finished No. 23 overall and was No. 16 in EPA and while they still have wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White, they did nothing much to upgrade the offense with the exception drafting center Graham Barton who should provide help right away along the offense line. The defense was even further down the rankings as the Buccaneers were No. 18 in EPA as the passing defense was abysmal with a lot of that due to having a poor pass rush. The cornerbacks were the big issue in the secondary so losing Carlton Davis is not a big deal but Tampa Bay needs to find a way to get to the quarterback or it will be another rough year.

The Buccaneers were not given much of a chance last season with life after Tom Brady and they were stamped with 6 wins but surpassed that with their strong run at the end of the season. Tampa Bay finished as the third luckiest team in the NFL and part of what goes into that is injuries and the Buccaneers were pretty fortunate in that regard, namely along the offensive line. Their win total has come down and justifiably so as no one really bought into them last season and many will not this year either including right here. Despite playing an easy slate that features the NFC East and AFC West, those divisions will be better and their three crossovers are Detroit, Baltimore and San Francisco. Under 7.5 at plus money is the play.

New Orleans Saints: 9-8 ~ 4-2 NFC South ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 32

Notable Additions: WR Cedrick Wilson, OT Oli Udoh, DE Chase Young, LB Willie Gay, LB Khaleke Hudson

Notable Losses: QB Jameis Winston, WR Michael Thomas, TE Jimmy Graham, G Andrus Peat, G Max Garcia, DE Malcolm Roach, OLB Zack Baun, CB Isaac Yiadom, S Marcus Maye, S Lonnie Johnson

Notable Draft Selections: OT Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, QB Spencer Rattler

The Saints finished tied with Tampa Bay atop the NFC South but lost the tiebreaker and missed the playoff for a third consecutive season. This coincides with the retirement of quarterback Drew Brees who led them to four straight postseason appearances in his final four seasons and the quarterback play has regressed considerably. Derek Carr was not horrible by any means, he just was not clutch and had trouble running the redzone offense. Last season should have been so much better as the Saints finished No. 9 in points scored, No. 8 in points allowed, No. 7 in scoring margin and they outgained 10 of 17 opponents and this is where coaching comes into play. Head coach Dennis Allen is the favorite to be the first coach fired this season and the one thing that could bail him out is they have a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak who should help Carr. New Orleans did nothing else to improve the offense while losing wide receiver Michael Thomas and tight end Jimmy Graham and both of which are still free agents which is saying they are not big losses for the Saints. Running back Alvin Kamara is coming off a below average season so getting him more involved would be a benefit. A weak offensive line could be their undoing. The defense was solid once again which has been the case for a few years no but they are getting older, especially in the secondary which could be problematic as the Saints have no pass rush, finishing No. 27 in pressure rate last season.

Like Tampa Bay, New Orleans looks to be another team that no one is buying as despite a winning record last season and no huge defections, its odds have risen while the win total has come down. This is despite playing the so-called easiest upcoming schedule. Their Super Bowl odds are the highest they have been since 2000 and this is just the second time since 2007 that the Saints have had a win total of less that 8 and who are we to question the oddsmakers numbers. Their own division stinks but the AFC West and NFC East should be better and their three crossover games are against the Packers, Browns and Rams so there is no easy way to find eight wins. This is another fade as we go under and -210 to miss the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers: 2-15 ~ 1-5 NFC South ~ 4-11-2 ATS ~ 5-11-1 O/U
Finished 4th in the NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 30

Notable Additions: WR Diontae Johnson, WR David Moore, OT Yosh Nijman, G Damien Lewis, G Robert Hunt, DT A’Shawn Robinson, DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB D.J. Wonnum, DE/OLB K’Lavon Chaisson, LB Josey Jewell, CB Dane Jackson, S Jordan Fuller, S Nick Scott

Notable Losses: WR D.J. Chark, TE Hayden Hurst, DE/OLB Brian Burns, DE/OLB Yetur Gross-Matos, DE/OLB Marquis Haynes, LB Frankie Luvu, LB Kamu Grugier Hill, CB Donte Jackson, CB C.J. Henderson, CB Shaq Griffin, S Jeremy Chinn

Notable Draft Selections: WR Xavier Legette, RB Jonathon Brooks, LB Trevin Wallace, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders

Carolina had a miserable 2023 season as it won only two games and those easily could have been losses as the Panthers won the two games by two points each and by a combined score of 24-20 so if either Houston or Atlanta had just average games on offense, Carolina could have put up the goose egg. That was the sixth straight losing season for Carolina and the fifth straight season registering double digit losses as it has gone a miserable 24-59. While upper management, namely owner David Tepper, should be to blame for the disaster that was 2023, head coach Frank Reich was the scapegoat and he became first NFL head coach since the 1970 merger to be fired in back-to-back seasons and both were midseason firings no less. Reich was not the issue but we feel the Panthers upgraded as they hired Dave Canales who has resurrected the careers of two quarterbacks the last two seasons, Geno Smith in Seattle in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023 and now his focus turns to Bryce Young who had one of the worst rookie seasons you will witness but it cannot be all put on him as he was behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Panthers upgraded significantly with their pass protection as they signed guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. The receiving corps was nonexistent after the departure of D.J. Moore but they traded for Dionte Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette. Losing edge Brian Burns hurts the defense but overall there were some upgrades on an average unit.

We are not going all in on Carolina but this could be one of the big surprises. The Panthers not going to the Super Bowl or make any sort of playoff run but in this division, they could be live. Ahead of them are two teams that no one is buying into based on the odds movement from the previous season and an Atlanta team that everyone is already crowning the NFC South champs despite being underachievers for years. Carolina plays the third easiest schedule and their crossover games are against the Bengals, Bears and Cardinals and this team is capable of stealing some wins as no one is going to take them too serious. The over is in play and it is not out of the question to give them a little backing to take this very weak division.

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