Valero Texas Open Preview and Picks

After tying for runner-up last year at the Texas Children's Houston Open, Gary Woodland cruised to a five-shot victory in one of the most emotional wins on the PGA Tour in recent memory. He took a one shot lead into Sunday and built the lead to seven at one point to capture his first win since the 2019 U.S. Open and just two years removed from brain surgery. The tour remains in the Lone Star State for the Valero Texas Open hosted by the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, the third longest running event on tour, and while it has always been in the River City area, TPC San Antonio has held the event every year since 2010. 

TPC San Antonio is a par 72, 7,438-yard layout that sits 1,100 feet above elevation which helps the distance numbers because of the thinner air. Even though this is one of the longer courses on tour, ranked No. 20 in distance, accuracy is ideally more important and because of the dry firm conditions, there will be plenty of roll with accurate players keeping it in the fairway whereas errant tee shots will gather outside the heavily tree-lined fairways and native areas. It is flat, the rough is short and non-penal and there are only three water hazards across the property yet it is typically ranked in the top ten in difficulty and there is one good reason for that, the good ole’ Texas wind. 

Trying to defend his 2025 win is Brian Harman who took the Valero Texas Open by three shots over Ryan Gerard and that was his first victory since the 2023 Open Championship. He came into Sunday with a three-shot lead and his 75 was good enough to maintain it as conditions were horrible with four players unable to break 80 where the scoring average was 74.8. The last back-to-back winner was Zach Johnson in 2008-2009 and Harman will have a tough time defending against a talented field. However, five of the last seven winners have been longshots: Harman (70/1), Akshay Bhatia 2024 (66/1), J.J. Spaun 2022 (200/1), Corey Conners 2019 (200/1) and Martin Laird 2018 (100/1).

Accuracy off the tee is more important than distance so Stroke Gained: Off-The-Tee is where to look but on a secondary level as straight and long are both obviously beneficial but having one and not the other is not a liability. Hitting greens here is tough and well below the tour average which makes the short game very important, similar to last week at Memorial Park. TPC San Antonio has 64 bunkers so in addition to looking at Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green and Scrambling, we also have to look at Sand Saves Gained. Putting is ranked down the list this week on the greens that typically run slow, rolling at an average of 11 on the Stimpmeter. 

Nine players ranked in the OWGR Top 20 are teeing it up and the field is strewn with others looking to win to gain a spot in The Masters next week. The aforementioned Bhatia, Spaun and Conners punched their golden ticket to Augusta with those victories. Players that are not qualified for The Masters still have plenty to play for with the Aon Swing 5 and top 10 in FedExCup points leaders getting an invite to the RBC Heritage, the next signature event right after The Masters. Despite the longshots recent domination, seven players are priced at +2000 or lower with Tommy Fleetwood the favorite at +1425 followed closely by Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre, Jordan Spieth, Colin Morikawa and Si Woo Kim. 

We could be in for a repeat of last year with the weather. Thursday through Saturday will have temperatures close to 90 degrees with a slight to mid chance of rain all three days and the biggest strong wind threat being Friday afternoon. Sunday looks to be interesting again as the temperature drops to a high of 65 with early rain and there will be wind throughout the day. 

Top four key categories this week in order at the Valero Texas Open:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Sand Saves Gained
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25%  with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Michael Thorbjornsen
Odds: Win 2,700 ~ Top Five 520 ~ Top Ten 255
Payout: Win 13,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,300.00 ~ Top Ten 637.50

Thorbjornsen has been on TV a lot over the last month on the weekend but has faded when it counts but he has the game to get it done. A Sunday 75 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a Sunday 77 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a Sunday 72 at the Texas Children's Houston Open knocked him out of contention. The numbers have still been good as he has been plus in all Strokes Gained categories with the only exception being negative off the tee at the API. He is No. 96 in Strokes Gained: Approach but that is due to a bad start which he has turned around but is great in the other three key categories and while he missed the cut here last year, he came in with five MC’s, a T74 and a T39 twice.

Keith Mitchell
Odds: Win 3,700 ~ Top Five 670 ~ Top Ten 325
Payout: Win 18,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,625.00 ~ Top Ten 812.50

Mitchell is being consistent again this season which goes in line with the last two years as he is No. 9 in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and No. 35 in Strokes Gained: Approach. His putting has been awful this season but he hits a place where he has been great. He has made four starts here and his worst finish was a T26 in 2018 and he has finished T14 and T12 the last two years and his success has been on the greens to go along with his typical elite off the tee and approach numbers. He has yet to miss a cut this season in nine starts and he has three top 15s including a T14 at the Texas Children's Houston Open which was his second straight plus putting performance which is a good trend. 

Ryo Hisatsune
Odds: Win 3,900 ~ Top Five 700 ~ Top Ten 335
Payout: Win 19,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,750.00 ~ Top Ten 837.50

He used Ryo two weeks ago at the Valspar Championship and finished T30 as he was exceptional off the tee but was average everywhere else. He is No. 2 in our model this week as he is ranked No. 41 or better in all four of our key categories including No. 30 or better in three of those with the No. 41 being Sand Saves Gained. After missing the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii, he posted three straight top ten finishes including a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open and his putter was hot in all three of those starts before regressing of late in the negative but has still finished well. That putter could come back here where he was excellent on the greens last year enroute to a T5 finish. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Odds: Win 7,400 ~ Top Five 1,125 ~ Top Ten 510
Payout: Win 35,500.00 ~ Top Five 2,812.50 ~ Top Ten 1,275.00

The longshots have fared well at the Valero Texas Open and we cannot go deep with many but we will grab one here with Bezuidenhout. Of all of the players at 70/1 or higher, he has the best fit combining recent form and course history and if he can get off the tee, he will be dangerous. He missed the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship but came back with a T30 at the Valspar Championship and a T51 last week which are not great but his short game was again spot on which is huge for here. He did not start here last year and finished T25 and T28 the previous two years where his putting was exceptional and everything else just average. This is a great price for a short game wiz on a course that demands it. 

Results through the Valspar Championship (7 Tournaments):

Win: -14,500.00
Top Five: -725.00
Top Ten: +2,287.50

SUBSCRIPTIONS