AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview and Picks

The WM Phoenix Open did not disappoint and we nearly opened the season with a big payday. We had three players in contention on Sunday but had to settle for a T3 with Si Woo Kim and a solo ninth with Matt Fitzpatrick for the money. A bogey by Hideki Matsuyama on the 72nd hole forced a playoff with Chris Gotterup, who birdied six of his last six holes and then birdied the first playoff hole to gain his second win of the young season. This week marks the first signature event of the season with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am taking place on the Monterey Peninsula, two hours north of San Francisco. Last year, this event preceded the WM Phoenix Open but they flip-flopped this year and now this is the first of back-to-back signature events with The Genesis Invitational from The Riviera Country Club next week. 

With many courses getting longer, Pebble Beach is one of the outliers being one of the shortest on tour at 6,972 yards but that does not make it easy. Driving distance can be an advantage but that can bring inaccuracy into play and that is a problem here. Thus, use of the driver is scaled back and last year, driving distance averaged 277 yards with the tour average being 293 yards and that led to more greens being hit, 72 percent with the tour average being 66 percent. The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet, making the greens the smallest on the PGA Tour so keeping the ball in the fairway for easier approaches is essential. Because the greens are so small, there are still plenty of missed putting surfaces so getting the ball up and down is another key to success.

With recent history of playing only two of four rounds at Pebble Beach, only half of the rounds are factored into the Strokes Gained metrics so while course history is important, looking at outside stats are just as big, especially correlating events, with the top three being the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands and the Procore Championship at Silverado Resort. As far as course history, knowing the lay of the land is vital just like most everywhere and past winners here need to have not only experience but successful experience as the last two decades plus of winners have made the cut at least once prior to their win.

Gone are the three long and laborious pro-am rounds over three different courses from Thursday through Saturday as now being a signature event, the field has been shortened to 80 players with no cut. Players will alternate between Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill on Thursday and Friday during the pro-am portion and finish with both rounds at Pebble Beach over the weekend with just the professionals playing and it will be that course data we will rely on considering there has been no Shot Link data from Spyglass. This is the best field of the season so far with every player of the world's top 10 and 22 of the top 25 teeing it up. Reigning champion Rory McIlroy will be making his US debut as will No. 4 Tommy Fleetwood while 2026 PGA Tour winners Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose and Chris Gotterup round out the top five. 

Weather can be an issue this time of year and we saw that two years when the event was shortened to 54 holes with Wyndham Clark winning by one shot over Ludvig Åberg after shooting a course record 60 in the third and ultimately final round. The weather looks to be a non-issue this year with average temperatures and not much wind until Sunday.

From a statistical standpoint, it is pretty straight forward with our top three key categories being:

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Maverick McNealy
Odds: Win 2,900 ~ Top Five 480 ~ Top Ten 220
Payout: Win 1,450.00 ~ Top Five 120.00 ~ Top Ten 55.00

We were on McNealy last week and it was another poor Sunday as he finished outside the top 10 but has three top 25 finishes in his first three starts. He has gained strokes in all three key categories in those starts and he is coming back to somewhere he loves. This is the place to get back on top as the Stanford native knows Pebble Beach well and has had success as a pro as he has two top five finishes here in his seven appearances. He is plus in SG: Approach in 13 of his last 14 starts and that has resulted in 11 top 25s including a pair of top fives. In correlating courses, he has a third and fourth at Harbour Town and a second at Silverado.

Russell Henley
Odds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 475 ~ Top Ten 215
Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 118.75 ~ Top Ten 53.75

Henley is ranked No. 6 in the OWGR and is a player that gets no respect despite not finishing outside the top 20 in any event over his last 10 starts after missing the cut at the PGA Championship. He is only missing a win as he has runners-up at the Travelers Championship and the Tour Championship. He has made two starts this year with a T8 at The American Express and a T19 at the Sony Open and he is ranked inside the top 10 in both SG: Approach and SG: Around The Green and was No. 4 in SG: Total in 2025. He was T5 here last year and looking at the correlating Harbour Town, his last three starts are T8, T12 and T19. 

Patrick Cantlay
Odds: Win 3,800 ~ Top Five 580 ~ Top Ten 265
Payout: Win 1,900.00 ~ Top Five 145.00 ~ Top Ten 66.25

No one wants to bet on Cantlay and there is usually value because of it. He finished T13 at The American Express and missed the cut at the Farmers as his putter has been ice cold, losing 1.43 strokes combined but was plus in SG: Total in both as well as nine of his last 10 starts. He did not start in here 2023 and has gone T11 in 2020, T3 in 2021, T4 in 2022, T11 in 2024 and T33 last year and while going backwards, the numbers are there. He has also been great at the correlating RBS Heritage with four third place finishes and a second while posting a fourth and a fifth at TPC River Highlands, another correlating course. 

Sepp Straka
Odds: Win 6,300 ~ Top Five 890 ~ Top Ten 390
Payout: Win 3,150.00 ~ Top Five 222.50 ~ Top Ten 97.50

Straka is No. 14 in the OWGR but he is still getting no love as this number is the same as Shane Lowry, Min Woo Lee and Rickie Fowler which are ranked No. 29, No. 52 and No. 75 respectively. He was not a factor last week but still quietly finished T18 and he has the key stats and course fit for Pebble Beach. His approach game is spot on, gaining strokes in 22 of his last 25 starts while sitting second in the field in SG: Approach on similar short courses and he is fifth in the field in strokes gained in signature events over the past 18 months. He has made two starts here the last five years and finished T26 in 2024 and T7 last year. 

Results through The WM Phoenix Open (1 Tournament):

Win: -2,000
Top Five: +600
Top Ten: +1,120.50

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