2024 Mountain West Conference Football Preview

2024 Mountain West Conference Preview

Regular Season Win Totals and MWC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Boise State: 9 Over -150 Under +120/-110 MWC Winner
Fresno State: 8 Over +110 Under -140/+475 MWC Winner
UNLV: 7.5 Over +125 Under -160/+550 MWC Winner
Colorado State: 6 Over -140 Under +110/+1,200 MWC Winner
Air Force: 6.5 Over -140 Under +110/+1,100 MWC Winner
Wyoming: 6.5 Over +100 Under -130/+1,400 MWC Winner
San Jose State: 5 Over +120 Under -150/+5,000 MWC Winner
Utah State: 5 Over -125 Under -105/+3,000 MWC Winner
Hawaii: 5 Over -130 Under +100/+5,000 MWC Winner
San Diego State: 5.5 Over +105 Under -135/+2,800 MWC Winner
Nevada: 2.5 Over -120 Under -110/+30,000 MWC Winner
New Mexico: 2 Over -120 Under -110/+35,000 MWC Winner

Coaching Changes

Boise St.: Andy Avalos Out ~ Spencer Danielson In
New Mexico: Danny Gonzalez Out ~ Bronco Mendenhall In
San Diego St.: Brady Hoke Out ~ Sean Lewis In
San Jose St.: Brent Brennen Out ~ Ken Niumatalolo In
Nevada: Ken Wilson Out ~ Jeff Choate In
Wyoming: Craig Bohl Out ~ Jay Sawvell In
Utah St.: Blake Anderson Out ~ Nate Dreiling In
Fresno St.: Jeff Tedford Out ~ Tim Skipper In

Boise St. Broncos 8-6 ~ 6-2 MWC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 11

Following a 10-4 season in 2022, Boise St. was tabbed the favorite by many to repeat as regular season champions, the first season the MWC was without divisions and the Broncos finished in a tie with San Jose St. and UNLV and ended up rolling the Rebels in the MWC Championship Game before losing to UCLA 35-22 in the LA Bowl. The Broncos ended up 8-6 and went through a head coach firing which was an odd one as they were playing fine with a 5-5 record at the time with four of those losses by 13 combined points and the other against Washington. Boise St. went 3-1 with then interim head coach Spencer Danielson and he is in a great situation. Six starters are back on offense and while Boise St. has to replace Taylen Green, it should be in good hands with USC transfer Malachi Nelson who was a top 2 recruit in 2023. Running back Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 1,347 yards and 14 touchdowns, returns as does most of the offensive line, while their top two wide receivers have to be replaced. The Broncos have 11 starters back on defense and even though they allowed 25.6 ppg last season, that experience is huge. Boise St. is at Oregon and hosts Washington St. and Oregon St. in the nonconference (they do not count in the MWC standings) while avoiding 3 of the other top six in the MWC.

Fresno St. Bulldogs 9-4 ~ 4-4 MWC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5

Not counting the 2020 COVID season, Fresno St. has won nine or more games in five of the other six seasons, the only team in the MWC that can make that claim. Last season, the Bulldogs got off to a 5-0 start and got into the AP Top 25 but lost a tough game at Wyoming by five points but won their next three games after that. Fresno St. was unable to keep that going and make a run to the MWC Championship Game as it lost its final three regular season games before blowing out New Mexico St. 37-10 in the New Mexico Bowl. Head coach Jeff Tedford returned for a second stint in 2022, replacing Kalen DeBoer who went to Washington and he was responsible for four of those 9+ recent win seasons but he stepped down and Tim Skipper takes over. The Bulldogs have eight starters back on offense including quarterback Mikey Keane who was outstanding as a freshman and they also have their top three running backs returning. The offensive line is loaded and this offense will not miss a beat. The defense lost over half of their starters but are strong in the back seven and bring in No. 1 defensive end recruit Korey Forman from USC. They open at Michigan and close at UCLA which are the only true nonconference tests and in the MWC, they avoid Boise St. but are at UNLV and Air Force.

UNLV Rebels 9-5 ~ 6-2 MWC ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6

UNLV was one of the surprises of the conference last season as following a 35-7 loss at Michigan, the Rebels went on a 7-1 run before losing the regular season finale to San Jose St. It was good enough to get them to the MWC Conference Championship Game where they were blown out by Boise St. before losing to Kansas 49-36 in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Still, it was a 9-5 season which were the most wins since 1984 where they had won eight games once and seven games twice so it was no surprise head Barry Odom signed a five-year contract extension in April after his first season here. The offense was supposed to explode under Bobby Petrino but he bolted for Texas A&M before coaching a game and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion did a fantastic job, averaging 34.4 ppg. The Rebels lose quarterback Jayden Maiava to USC but Holy Cross transfer Matthew Sluka can thrive in this system. Their offensive line is stacked and their top two receivers that combined for 2,089 yards are both back. UNLV was not as strong defensively but it as their best unit in seasons and there is talent at all levels and should be better under defensive mind Odom. They are at Kansas and a game at Houston could be tricky to open the season and while they face Boise St. and Fresno St., both are at home.

Colorado St. Rams 5-7 ~ 3-5 MWC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7

Colorado St. put together five straight winning seasons from 2013-2017 but now they have a string of six straight losing campaigns culminating with its 5-7 record last year. The Rams had a chance to make it to a bowl game but lost its season finale as a favorite at Hawaii. Four of the seven losses were by one possession so there was progress last season following back-to-back 3-9 campaigns and they are looking for the breakthrough. Head coach Jay Norvell has this team going in the right direction entering his third season after proven success at Nevada where he got out at the right time. The offense nearly doubled its output, going from 13.2 ppg in 2022 to 26.1 ppg in 2023 thanks to the top passing game in the MWC that finished No. 9 in the country led by all MWC quarterback Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi. His top target Tory Horton returns and while they lose their leading rusher, there was not much there anyway. The offensive line returns four of five starters. The defense regressed from 2022 but the Rams are athletic and will show improvement. Three of their top four tacklers that combined for 296 tackles are back and the secondary is loaded. A trip to Texas opens the season and they host rival Colorado and while they avoid Boise St. and UNLV, they have Air Force and Fresno St. on the road.

Air Force Falcons 9-4 ~ 5-3 MWC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 4

Winning in Colorado Springs has become commonplace under head coach Troy Calhoun as Air Force has had only four losing seasons under his direction and last season looked like it could be something special. The Falcons rolled out to an 8-0 start but got blown out at home by 20 points against Army and they were never the same, losing their last four regular season games. They just fell short of their fourth straight non-COVID double-digit season but if everything goes right, they could start a new streak but that is a big if. The issue is inexperience as Air Force is the second least experienced team in the MWC and it brings back only six starters. Two of those are on offense and they happen to be receivers, the least needed position in this offense so it is a rebuild but the Falcons have had to replace five or fewer starters four times in the last six years and have been successful under offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen. They will find a way for a potent rushing attack. The defense will be fine in the secondary where three of their four returning starters reside and there is plenty of junior and senior experience up front. Nonconference games include Army and Navy as usual and a game at Baylor while in the MWC, they miss Boise St. and UNLV and get Fresno St. and Colorado St. at home.

Wyoming Cowboys 9-4 ~ 5-3 MWC ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 5-5-2 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7

Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl retired at the end of last season after 10 seasons with the Cowboys where he compiled a 61-60 record and took them to a bowl game in six of the last seven non-COVID seasons. He went out strong with a 9-4 record with those nine victories the most in his tenure and now Jay Sawvel takes over after serving as the defensive coordinator under Bohl for the last four seasons. This is a strong program with a toughness on both sides so the transition should be seamless especially with a schedule that is on their side. Wyoming was below average on offense as they averaged only 327 ypg but it had a decent power rushing attack and they will stick to that style with new offensive coordinator Jay Johnson who arrives from Michigan St. so he knows about the style. Harrison Waylee returns after rushing for 947 yards last season and will be running behind an offensive line with four returning starters. The wild card will be quarterback Even Svoboda who has a big arm and can run. Under Sawvel, the defense was never great but decently consistent, allowing between 21.0 and 23.9 ppg and they have seven starters back. The Cowboys go to Arizona St., Washington St. and host BYU and in the MWC, they get Boise St. and Air Force at home and avoid Fresno St.

San Jose St. Spartans 7-6 ~ 6-2 MWC ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 4

It was a tale of two seasons for San Jose St. last year as it got off to a 1-5 start with the lone win coming against Cal Poly of the FCS but then the Spartans found their footing and closed the regular season 6-0 to finish 6-2 in the conference and a three-way tie for first place. They did not make the MWC Championship Game because of some unknown tiebreaker and while they went on to lose against Coastal Carolina 24-14 in the Hawaii Bowl, it was some unplanned success. They enter this season as the least experienced team in the conference and one of the least experienced teams in the country so it will take some overachieving and new head coach Ken Niumatalolo comes in with a chip on his shoulder. San Jose St. averaged 31.8 ppg last season, its most since 2013, and there will be a regression with only three starters back and they lose an all MWC quarterback and their top four rushers along with four offensive linemen. The defense is not much better off with only four starters back after finishing No. 2 in the conference in defense. The linebacking corps will be the strength and need to be disruptive to make up for a weak secondary. Washington St., Oregon. St. and Stanford make up the nonconference slate and while they face all the top teams in the MWC, three of those are at home.

Utah St. Aggies 6-7 ~ 4-4 MWC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Utah St. ended last season on a 3-1 run, including a pair of double overtime wins, to become bowl eligible where it was ultimately blown out by Georgia St. 45-22 in the Idaho Potato Bowl but the Aggies had some positive momentum heading into 2024. Then came a late blow in July where the administration fired head coach Blake Anderson for cause after he had not complied with the reporting of sexual misconduct cases. Newly hired defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling will serve as interim head coach and not only does he has to take over the X and O aspects but he has to make sure his team is on board as this firing was not taken well by very many. 15 starters are back and the Aggies are the third most experienced team in the conference so on paper, they can be a sleeper contender as long as their heads are into it. They lost their quarterback but brought in Iowa transfer Spencer Petras who has a ton of experience. He will be throwing to the second best receiving corps and will be behind an experienced line. The defense could struggle as they lost three of their top four tacklers and need to stop the run where they allowed 213 ypg. They host Utah and are at USC and Washington St. while in the MWC, they avoid Fresno St. and Air Force and do have four conference home games.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 5-8 ~ 3-5 MWC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Hawaii has made progress in the first two years under head coach Timmy Chang and the pieces are in place to get to a bowl game. The problem is that Hawaii plays two FCS teams so should they win those, they will need five other wins to get seven wins total to get to a bowl but it is more than possible. The Warriors have momentum coming into this year as they won three of their last four games and Chang took over the play calling late in the season. Whether he continues that is still unknown as he hired a new offensive coordinator in Dan Morrison who happened to coach Chang when he was the quarterback at Hawaii. The Warriors bring back eight starters on an offense that improved slightly from 2022 and has a chance to really explode this season. Quarterback Brayden Schager threw for 3,542 yards last season with 26 touchdowns but did toss 14 picks. He threw for 320 or more yards in half of his games but needs to be more consistent and he has his top six receivers back. Any resemblance of a running game will help. The defense improved as the season went on last year and still needs to get better with seven starters coming back. UCLA and Sam Houston are the other two nonconference games and in the MWC, they miss Air Force and get Boise St. and UNLV on the island.

San Diego St. Aztecs 4-8 ~ 2-6 MWC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 4

San Diego St. has been as consistent as they come as not counting the 2020 COVID season, the Aztecs had 12 consecutive winning seasons, including five double-digit winning campaigns, up until their 4-8 record last year. What made it worse was the fact they started out 2-0 but then the schedule caught up to them as they lost their next four games against teams that finished with eight or more wins and they could not recover. Head coach Brady Hoke retired after last season and Sean Lewis was hired after serving as the offensive coordinator at Colorado last season. He will shift the offense from a running style to a more Air Raid system as the Aztecs have not averaged 200 yards passing since 2019. Six starters are back on offense and San Diego St. has to break in a new quarterback which is not a bad thing with a new system and it will likely be Florida St. transfer A.J. Duffy. While they will be airing it out at a record speed, that sets up the running game and they brought in 1,000-yard rusher Marquez Cooper from Ball St., who also played under Lewis at Kent St. The defense will struggle namely because they will be on the field way too much. The schedule is not horrible as it is ranked No. 80 but there are too many roadblocks away from home to get enough wins but this is a team on the rise.

Nevada Wolf Pack 2-10 ~ 2-6 MWC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6

Nevada football has never been a thing as it has had only one double-digit winning season in the 37-year history of the program and it has reached eight wins only four times since 2006. While the Wolf Pack have never been really good, they have never been really bad either, that is up until the last two seasons where they went 2-10, the worst two-season stretch ever. There is not much talent or depth so it will be another tough season but they should be better. The offense has nowhere to go but up as Nevada averaged 17.3 ppg on 300 ypg and those are the fewest points it has averaged since 2000 when it put up the exact same amount. Quarterback Brendon Lewis was bad and will be pushed by Nebraska transfer Chubba Purdy and whoever wins the job will be throwing to a brand new set of receivers as the top six are gone. They bring in former 1,000-yard rusher Patrick Garwo from Boston College and it all will work around a young offensive line. The defense was not the worst ever but it was still bad as the Wolf Pack were No. 125 overall and No. 118 in scoring. They will be better with Choate here but still not very good. Nevada plays 13 games and the nonconference schedule is tough while it has to play the top five teams in the MWC so it is going to be another long season.

New Mexico Lobos 4-8 ~ 2-6 MWC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 6

New Mexico has not had a winning season since 2016 and it will not break that streak this season but the Lobos did make a solid move with their head coach as they hired Bronco Mendenhall who had plenty of success at a similar type school in BYU. It has been so bad in Albuquerque that the four wins from last season were the most than the previous six seasons. New Mexico has been to four bowl games since 2006 and every one of those was at the New Mexico Bowl so their prize has been to not even be able leave home and Mendenhall will fix that eventually, just not now. Only three starters are back on offense which is not good considering they averaged 27.3 ppg, their most since 2016 and they more than doubled their output from 2022. Devon Dampier likely takes over at quarterback who is a duel threat and he gets two receivers and a tight end that are returning starters but that is it on offense. The Lobos lose a 1,229-yard running back and the entire offensive line. The defense was far from good enough to help the offense and with the offense taking a big step back, the defense does not have the talent to improve dramatically. They are at Arizona and at Auburn early and they miss Boise St. and UNLV in the MWC and have seven road games in total. Another rebuild.

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