2024 AFC South Overview and Betting Preview

2024 AFC South Overview and Betting Preview

Regular Season Win Totals and AFC South/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Houston Texans: 9.5 Over -140 Under +120 ~ AFC South Winner +105 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,600
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5 Over -110 Under -110 ~ AFC South Winner +250 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000
Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Over -105 Under -115 ~ AFC South Winner +340 ~ Super Bowl Winner +7,500
Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Over +110 Under -135 ~ AFC South Winner +1,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000

Coaching Changes
Tennessee Titans: Mike Vrabel Out ~ Brian Callahan In

Team Previews

Houston Texans: 11-8 ~ 4-2 AFC South ~ 10-9-0 ATS ~ 7-11-1 O/U
Won AFC South, Lost in the AFC Divisional Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 5

Notable Additions: RB Joe Mixon, WR Stefon Diggs, DE Danielle Hunter, DT Folo Fatukasi, DT Denico Autry, DT Mario Edwards, DT Tim Settle, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Myles Bryant, CB C.J. Henderson, S Lonnie Johnson, P Tommy Townsend

Notable Losses: RB Devin Singletary, OT George Fant, OT Josh Jones, C Michael Deiter, DE Jonathan Greenard, DE Jerry Hughes, DT Maliek Collins, DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Hassan Ridgeway, LB Blake Cashman, LB Denzel Perryman, CB Steve Nelson, CB Tavierre Thomas, S Kareem Jackson, S Eric Murray, P Cameron Johnston

Notable Draft Selections: CB Kamari Lassiter, OT Blake Fisher, S Caden Bullock, TE Cade Stover

Coming into last season, Houston was the longshot to win the AFC South with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback and it was not a good start as the Texans started the season 0-2 then won six of their next eight games to gain some traction and took out Tennessee and Indianapolis in their final two games to win the division. Those initial two losses were the only consecutive defeats on the season and they carried the momentum into the playoffs with a blowout win over Cleveland before getting smacked at Baltimore but it was a still a successful season with a very bright future. Quarterback C.J. Stroud looked like a rookie in the season opener against Baltimore but the future NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year did not play like it after, throwing for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. His completion percentage of 63.9 percent needs to improve but he finished with a 100.8 passer rating and that was with losing his top receiver late in the season. Tank Dell is now healthy and they acquired Stefon Diggs to group with Nico Collins to form a great trio. Houston also added running back Joe Mixon to run behind a solid offensive line. The Texans also had the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson, part of a defense that finished a respectable No. 14 in Total EPA. There was a lot of turnover on this side so it could be a wait and see how the unit reacts. The schedule is backloaded in strength so the Texans have the ability to get off to another great start.

With higher expectations and an AFC South title under their belts, the Texans are hit with a win total of 9.5, three more than they had last year coming into the season which they cashed in Week 13. The schedule has some good but mostly bad to it as Houston has most of their winnable games early so they can get some momentum going. Their crossover games are against the AFC East and NFC North so that is not easy as is the fact the other three non-division games are Dallas, Kansas City and Baltimore. Indianapolis and Jacksonville both could be better so getting to 10 wins might not happen. There is no value to win the division at +105 and the fact that the Texans Super Bowl odds are the seventh lowest shows no value there either.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8 ~ 4-2 AFC South ~ 9-8-0 ATS ~ 8-9-0 O/U
Finished Tied For Second in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 9

Notable Additions: QB Mac Jones, WR Gabe Davis, WR Devin Duvernay, C Mitch Morse, DT Arik Armstead, OLB Trevis Gipson, CB Ronald Darby, S Darnell Savage, K Joey Slye

Notable Losses: QB C.J. Beathard, WR Calvin Ridley, G Tyler Shatley, DE K’Lavon Chaisson, DE Dawuane Smoot, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins

Notable Draft Selections: WR Brian Thomas, DT Maason Smith, CB Jarrian Jones, OT Javon Foster, DT Jordan Jefferson, CB Deantre Prince

Jacksonville was one of the bigger disappointments in the AFC last season, not necessarily because it missed the playoffs but because it was the overwhelming division favorite at -155. The Jaguars started just fine at 8-3 but imploded late as they lost five of their last six games to finish 9-8 for a second straight season but last year was just not good enough for a second straight AFC South title. The division looks to be wide open again and Jacksonville could be the team to break away with quarterback Trevor Lawrence healthy and hoping to stay that way unlike last season. He basically threw for the same amount of yards with the same completion percentage as 2022 but threw four fewer touchdowns and six more interceptions. He will have a partially new receiver room with problematic Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones both gone while getting Gabe Davis from Buffalo and drafting Brian Thomas from LSU to compliment Christian Kirk. The offensive line was upgraded which is important to keep Lawrence on the field. The defense has remained steady each of the last few years in yards allowed but that is not a good thing as it has been below average, finishing No. 16 in Defensive EPA last season. They have made improvements, notably signing defensive tackle Arik Armstead from San Francisco to form a very strong defensive line which will help the secondary. The Jaguars allowed 29.2 ppg over those final five losses while posting a shutout in that lone victory but that was against Carolina.

As mentioned, this could be the team that has breakaway potential in the AFC South but the schedule is once again going against them as it is every year with their London trips. The Jaguars have only seven true home games and their home field is not great to begin with which has had a lot to do with them not being able to get over the win total in recent years. Jacksonville has gone 13-3 to the under the last 16 seasons with a lot of that putting bad teams on the field but also with their abnormal schedules. Still, if they can get out of the first five weeks with a winning record before going to London, the over is in play. They are definitely worth a look at +250 in the South but past that, there is not enough to love for them to make a long run.

Indianapolis Colts: 9-8 ~ 3-3 AFC South ~ 9-8-0 ATS ~ 10-6-1 O/U
Finished Tied For Second in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 22

Notable Additions: QB Joe Flacco, DT Raekwon Davis

Notable Losses: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zack Moss, WR Isaiah McKenzie, DE Jacob Martin

Notable Draft Selections: DE Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell, OT/G Matt Goncalves, G/C Tanor Bortolini, KR Anthony Gould, S/LB Jaylon Carlies

Indianapolis went into last season with low expectations as it was coming off a 4-12-1 season, had a rookie head coach and rookie starting at quarterback and its All Pro running back was in a contract dispute. Despite all of this, the Colts opened the season 3-2 as quarterback Anthony Richardson showed flashes but he was banged up early and often and was shut down after playing just four games. They went on to lose their next three games not because of the quarterback but because the defense allowed 37, 39 and 38 points. Richardson is now healthy, running back Jonathan Taylor will actually start the season, their receiving corps is better and a top level offensive line all adds up to an offense that could explode. They left a lot on the table last season as they averaged only 23 ppg despite accumulating their most yardage in four years. Obviously, there is the concern with Richardson but he cannot be tabbed an oft-injured quarterback just yet and his ceiling looks exceptionally high. That aforementioned three-game stretch from the defense potentially kept them out of the playoffs but those were an aberration as they allowed 30 points only one time in their final nine games. Getting defensive end Laiatu Latu at No. 15 in the draft was a steal and should improve upon their No. 21 EPA ranking.

Oddsmakers liked what they saw last season from Richardson and as the team as whole fighting through adversity as all of their odds are lower than last season with their win total two games higher. What also is on their side is a very easy schedule as they play the AFC East and NFC North like the other three teams but their three crossover games are all winnable against the Steelers, Broncos and Giants. There are enough other wins out there as well despite nine road games as they get Buffalo, Detroit and Miam at home so one upset there and a 4-2 division record should get them to double digits. At +350, the Colts have the best value to win the division and that is where our bet is, we just have to hope Richardson stays on the field.

Tennessee Titans: 6-11 ~ 1-5 AFC South ~ 7-9-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 23

Notable Additions: QB Mason Rudolph, RB Tony Pollard, WR Calvin Ridley, G Saahdiq Charles, C Lloyd Cushenberry, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LB Kenneth Murray, CB L’Jarius Sneed, CB Chidobe Awuzie

Notable Losses: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, WR Nick Westbrook, OT Andre Dillard, OT Chris Hubbard, C Aaron Brewer, DE Denicco Autry, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB Kristian Fulton, S Terrell Edmunds

Notable Draft Selections: OT J.C. Latham, NT T’Vondre Sweat, LB Cedric Gray, CB Jarvis Brownlee

After six straight winning seasons, the Titans have endured back-to-back losing seasons but they were not complete disasters at 7-10 and 6-11 yet they were enough to cost head coach Mike Vrabel his job which was the most surprising firing in the offseason. Tennessee hired Brian Callahan who served as the Bengals offensive coordinator the last five seasons and he brings in a good pedigree as he is the son of Bill Callahan who also came over to coach the offensive line. The offense has regressed considerably the last few seasons but age has played into that with quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry having their best years behind them and both are now gone. The offense has been upgraded along the offensive line which is a big step in the progress of quarterback Will Levis who showed he can succeed in this league but he needs more consistency. The Titans also signed receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, so along with DeAndre Hopkins, Levis has a very solid group to throw to. They replaced Henry with Tony Pollard who can flourish as the No. 1 back, something he never got to consistently do while in Dallas. The defense actually graded out worse last season as Tennessee finished No. 25 in Defensive EPA as it was horrible against the pass at No. 28. They signed two top cornerbacks to shore up the secondary and while they lost defensive end Denicco Autry, the line will be fine with Harold Landry and Jeffrey Simmons but the linebackers have to step up.

This team looks to be unbettable in the futures market with the unknown Levis in control. He threw four touchdowns in his first start against the Falcons but threw only four touchdowns in his other eight games after that combined. That is not the game log you want to see from a quarterback to bet over their win total, and the 6.5 does seem to be inflated even at plus money. The schedule is affecting the total with a doable backend where a 5-5 record is plausible but the frontend is a beast where a 0-7 start is not out of the question as they will be underdogs in all seven games so the under looks safe but not at -375. If a win bet is absolutely needed, DraftKings is offering Exact 6 wins at +370 so that could be fun for a sprinkle instead of laying juice.

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