2024 Pac 2/Independent Football Preview

2024 Pac 2/Independent Preview

Regular Season Win Totals (via DraftKings)

Notre Dame: 10 Over -115 Under -105
Washington State: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100
Oregon State: 7.5 Over +110 Under -130
Connecticut: 4.5 Over -130 Under +110
Massachusetts: 3.5 Over -125 Under +105

Coaching Changes

Oregon State: Jonathan Smith Out ~ Trent Bray In

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10-3 ~ 9-3-1 ATS ~ 9-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 9

Another year, another year of high expectations for Notre Dame. Double-digit wins in six of the last seven seasons while cracking the AP Top 10 in each of those seven seasons has brought the Fighting Irish nothing more than three top five finishes. Notre Dame has made the CFP twice, in 2018 and 2020, only to get blown out in the Semifinals both times and of late, early and mid-season losses have put a wrench in their plans. A controversial loss to Ohio St. after a 4-0 start was a stinger but then a 13-point loss at Louisville was unexpected and they were cooked again. They come into this season as preseason No. 7 and if they can avoid bad losses, the Fighting Irish will be in the CFP once again with the expansion definitely helping. Because they are not affiliated with a Power 4 conference, they cannot get a bye but that should not matter. They just have to get there first. They have 15 starters back but are just No. 101 in experience and will rely on Duke Transfer Riley Leonard to lead the offense that losses its top back and receiver. The defense was stout last season and will be again with nine starters back and a top five secondary. They only have three true road games including the first and last game against Texas A&M and USC. Everything else should be a win including getting Florida St. at home.

Washington State Cougars 5-7 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 4

Washington St. had its seven-season bowl streak come to an end last season, not counting the 2020 COVID year when it played only four games, as it was a nightmare ending. The Cougars opened 4-0 including a pair of top 20 wins and they moved up to No. 13 in the AP Poll but then it was six straight losses before a win over an equally reeling Colorado team. Washington St. had a chance to still go bowling but lost to eventual CFP invitee Washington on a last second field goal. Now the Cougars enter 2024 with their future up in the air with the dissolving of the Pac 12 so they are basically playing as an Independent and will have to run the table to have any playoff consideration. We do not see that happening as they have only 10 starters back and are No. 121 in experience. They lose quarterback Cam Ward as he transferred to Miami while also losing their top two receivers. Washington St. had no running game last season as it averaged 85 ypg so it needs balance behind a very experienced offensive line. The defense is in bigger trouble with just four starts back as the Cougars have to replace their entire secondary. They play the No. 100 ranked schedule so there is some hope as they face two former Pac 12 teams, a Big 12 team and eight MWC teams and it looks doable to get back to a bowl.

Oregon State Beavers 8-5 ~ 5-4 Pac 12 ~ 6-7-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 1

Oregon St. is the other former Pac 12 team without a home as it will have to regroup from a disappointing 2023 season. Disappointing in that it could have been something really special as the Beavers got to No. 11 midseason and No. 10 late season but they could not close as their first three conference losses were by a combined eight points. After years of misery, head coach Jonathan Smith turned the program around with three straight winning seasons for the first time since 2006-2009 when it had four straight winning campaigns. This is a great momentum builder but the regrouping stems from Smith leaving to take the job at Michigan St. and Oregon St. returning only five starters. The program promoted defensive coordinator Trent Bray to be the head coach and he will have his work cut out. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei was solid last season but transferred to Florida St. and it will likely be Idaho transfer Gevani McCoy taking over. They also lost their top running back and top four receivers. Only one starter is back on defense that made big improvements the last two seasons but it will take a step back. They have three former Pac 12 teams on the slate to go along with seven MWC opponents as well as Purdue so the schedule is easy enough to make up for the departures.

Connecticut Huskies 3-9 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8

Head coach Jim Mora was hired in 2022 to try and turn around a program that had not had a winning record since 2011 and he came into a nightmare situation. The Huskies finished 2019 with a 2-10 record as they beat Wagner from the FCS and equally inept Massachusetts, completely shut the program down in 2020 and then went 1-11 in 2021, beating only FCS Yale. Hiring Mora certainly paid off as Connecticut became bowl eligible with a game to spare but they did finish 6-7 because of the bowl loss yet it was something to build upon. Unfortunately, that did not happen as the Huskies opened 1-9 but did win their final two games to restore a hint of confidence. Three losses came to ranked teams and four others were by one possession so it was not as bad as those past seasons. Six starters are back on offense counting quarterback Joe Fagnano who played only two games before being lost for the season. There is experience in the receiver room and the top two running backs return but three offensive linemen have to be replaced. The defense has the chance to be the best in a very long time with eight starters back and a new defensive coordinator from Mississippi St. Seven of the first nine games are at home and many are winnable so we could see another bounce back from Mora.

Massachusetts Minutemen 3-9 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6

After bringing football back in 2012 for the first time since 1906, Massachusetts entered the MAC and that marriage last only four years because the school did not want to become a full time member. They have made up after 10 years as the Minutemen are set to rejoin the MAC in 2025 but not after another miserable year as an Independent. It has been one of the worst runs in college football history as Massachusetts has gone 24-112 including six seasons with one or no wins. But there is something to build on as the three wins last season were the most since 2018 and they equaled the win total from the previous four seasons combined. Give credit to head coach Don Brown who turned teams around at the FCS level and was a successful defensive coordinator before being hired here in 2022. Offensively, the Minutemen improved by 10.7 ppg from 2022 and they do bring back quarterback Taisun Phommachanh and should improve again despite only four other starters back. The defense was atrocious, allowing over 37 ppg and there is not enough in place to make a big move up. Three SEC teams and three MAC contenders are on the slate but there are also two FCS teams along with Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Connecticut so their over win total is possible but a bowl game is not.

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