The Valspar Championship Preview and Picks

THE PLAYERS Championship is in the books and while we had two players in contention on Sunday, we had to settle for just a T8 with Sepp Straka while Viktor Hovland posted his worst round of the week to fall out of the money. Cameron Young had a memorable birdie on 17 while Matt Fitzpatrick bogeyed 18 and Young claimed his second PGA Tour win, the first coming at the Wyndham Championship last summer after a record tying seven runner-ups before the first victory. The PGA Tour remains in Florida for the fourth and final leg as it heads to Palm Harbor for the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course. 

This will be the 25th year of the Valspar Championship that debuted in 2000 at Copperhead which is a par 71 that stretches 7,352 yards and like last week, it demands elite ball striking. It features very narrow fairways with well placed bunkers and punishing rough in key areas. Overall, there are 74 bunkers while nine holes have water in play so positioning is vital and once on the greens, players will again be putting on TifEagle Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed that will hit an average of 12 on the Stimpmeter. The three closing holes at Copperhead are among the toughest three-hole stretches on tour and the Snake Pit moniker is apropos as going even par on 16, 17 and 18 is rare. 

Viktor Hovland is the defending Valspar Championship winner as he won by one shot over Justin Thomas and Hovland was an unexpected champion at 50/1 as he entered in horrible form, missing the cut in his three previous starts and not having a top ten since August 2024. He was the third straight longshot with Peter Molinati at 300/1 and Taylor Moore at 50/1 winning the previous two years. Current form has meant little as of all winners since 2013, only Sam Burns in 2021 came in with a top ten in their previous start. Only four players have won here two times, most recently Sam Burns in 2021 and 2022 and he joined Paul Casey as the only players to defend after Casey did it in 2018 and 2019. 

As mentioned, this is another positional course with narrow, tree-lined fairways which tends to yield below average driving accuracy and driving distance rankings evidenced by three of the last eight winners losing strokes off the tee. It once again makes Strokes Gained: Approach the top key stat this week along with Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and Strokes Gained: Around The Green right in the mix so it is nearly a duplicate of TPC Sawgrass in regard to what it takes to succeed. With five par threes that average 221 yards, Par 3s Gained: 200-225 Yards is also a key metric as to not lose ground on those holes. The Copperhead Course has ranked in the top ten in difficulty each of the last three years. 

Despite coming off THE PLAYERS and The Arnold Palmer Invitational the week before, the field is fairly strong which is usually the case here and nine of the 25 players in the OWGR are teeing it up this week but only Xander Schauffele is ranked in the top ten at No. 7. The top favorites at the Valspar Championship are Schauffele +1050, Matt Fitzpatrick +1475, Viktor Hovland +1900, Akshay Bhatia +1950, Patrick Cantlay +2200, Justin Thomas and Jacob Bridgeman +2250 and Jordan Spieth +2500. Backing the recent longshot success, betting the top of the board has not been the key to winning as over the last 10 years, 12/1 Jordan Spieth in 2015 is the only winner with closing odds of shorter than 20/1.

The weather messed around on Thursday last week with a short delay and while the forecast looks dry this week, wind looks to play a role which is typically the case. Thursday looks to have the strongest gusts at around 20 mph and with no rain, we will see a firm and fast track. 

Top three key categories this week:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
Strokes Gained: Around The Green

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25%  with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Jordan Spieth
Odds: Win 2,500 ~ Top Five 490 ~ Top Ten 245
Payout: Win 1,250.00 ~ Top Five 122.50 ~ Top Ten 61.25

Spieth has strong history at the Valspar Championship, including a victory in 2015, following that up with a T18, a T3 in 2023 while posting a T28 last year. His elite short game and creativity suit Copperhead’s tight layout and while he was just T32 last week, we reiterate current form matters little and he has never had much success at Sawgrass anyway, but he still finished No. 8 in Strokes Gained: Approach and No. 16 in Strokes Gained: Around The Green. His putting let him down up until Sunday after coming in having gained strokes on the greens in three straight starts. He has missed only one cut this year where he was awful across the board at the WM Phoenix Open. 

Ryo Hisatsune
Odds: Win 4,200 ~ Top Five 730 ~ Top Ten 345
Payout: Win 2,100.00 ~ Top Five 182.50 ~ Top Ten 86.25

Hisatsune finished T4 here last year which shows strong comfort on the challenging Copperhead Course. He has also displayed solid recent form, which is not huge but it is nice to have in the back pocket including a T13 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship and strong tee-to-green numbers. His accurate ball-striking suits Copperhead’s narrow fairways and doglegs and after missing the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii, he posted three straight top ten finishes including a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has gained strokes off the tee in every event while gaining strokes in approach and around the green in seven of eight starts. If he can roll it, look out.

Austin Smotherman
Odds: Win 5,600 ~ Top Five 930 ~ Top Ten 440
Payout: Win 2,800.00 ~ Top Five 232.25 ~ Top Ten 110.00

Smotherman is ranked No. 1 on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and he has parlayed that into a T2, a T8 and a T13 in seven starts. His other four starts have resulted in a withdrawal and three missed cuts which was due to losing strokes putting and around the green. He is ranked No. 118 in Strokes Gained: Around The Green which is not ideal but taking a look at his last finish start here where he finished T36, ironically, he was lights out in both categories and it was his approach game that let him down where he was -0.91. He is also ranked No. 28 on tour in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee so those recent Copperhead short game memories can get him on top. 

Taylor Moore
Odds: Win 7,600 ~ Top Five 1,175 ~ Top Ten 540
Payout: Win 3,800.00 ~ Top Five 293.75 ~ Top Ten 138.50

Moore comes in ranked No. 22 in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and No. 21 in Strokes Gained: Around The Green so he has been elite in two of the top three categories as his approach game has let him down. This has led to four finishes of T44, T49, T50 and T56 so it has not been ideal but in the one start at the Cognizant Classic where he gained strokes in approach, he finished T2. He missed the cut here last year which came after a T12 in 2024 where his approach game was spot on which followed a victory here in 2023 where he led the field off the tee. He is close to putting it all together and coming back to a place that he conquered can ultimately do that. 

Results through THE PLAYERS Championship (6 Tournaments):

Win: -12,500.00
Top Five: +275.00
Top Ten: +3,287.50

SUBSCRIPTIONS